Livestreaming Over? Warning from the Fair Trade Commission. Considering the Future of Livestreamers.
- ブラッシュ ミュージック
- Dec 20, 2025
- 3 min read
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Structural Analysis of the Past, Present, and Future of the Livestreamer Business, Triggered by the JFTC's Warning to Livestreamer Agencies
Music producer and global marketer Welcome Man systematically organizes the history, current challenges, and future outlook of Japan's livestreamer business, starting from the Fair Trade Commission's warning issued to four livestreamer agencies on December 9. He reveals the essence of the structural conflict between agencies and creators, proposing a strategy centered on “strong IP and storytelling” essential for the live commerce era.
The FTC's Warning to Live Streamer Agencies and Its Background
On December 9th, the Fair Trade Commission issued a warning to four top-tier live streamer agencies on the “Pococha” live streaming platform, citing potential violations of the Antimonopoly Act. The issue lies in the fact that management contracts with affiliated livestreamers contained clauses restricting business activities. These clauses prohibited “livestreaming activities,” “signing contracts with other agencies,” and “engaging in similar businesses” for a fixed period after contract termination, despite lacking reasonable justification. The Commission pointed out that business activity restrictions lacking reasonable necessity (such as preventing trade secret leaks) or proportionality in means risk reducing transaction opportunities for other agencies and affecting fair and free competition. Considering the potential violation of Article 19 of the Antimonopoly Act, it urged caution from a preventive perspective. During the review process, the four agencies indicated they “plan to revise the stipulated content,” suggesting the situation is likely to move toward regulatory adjustments and corrective measures.
Historical Evolution and Three Phases of Japan's Livestreaming Industry
Japan's livestreaming industry began around 2014-2015 with the influx of overseas models, with SHOWROOM establishing the domestic starting point. Welcome Man's company also became involved around 2016, and the industry saw significant growth during the first movement phase from 2016 to 2019. At that time, the support model was closer to crowdfunding than the now-common term “tipping.” Livestreamers shared their dreams and aspirations openly, revealing their entire creative process. This allowed fans to co-experience their stories, transforming support into tangible backing. Even with limited merchandise or CDs, fans could directly support livestreamers via smartphones during broadcasts. This created visible relationships and a cycle of enthusiasm.
Around 2019, the term “livestreamer business” gained traction, fueling market expansion. During the pandemic, restrictions on going out led individuals from sectors not traditionally associated with livestreaming—like nightlife districts, clubs, hostess clubs, and host clubs—to enter streaming. This second wave popularized the terms ‘livestreamer’ and “tips” among the general public. Meanwhile, the author downsized operations during the pandemic, concerned that the livestreaming business's branding had deteriorated and its image in the music sphere had worsened. Moving away from entertainment specialization, the focus shifted to supporting DIY artists in music (program production, planning, auditions, activity consultations, etc.). Thus, after experiencing the “first wave of fervor” and the “second wave of broadening reach,” the industry now stands at a turning point toward its next phase.
The Future of the Livestreaming Business: A New Business Model Centered on Powerful IP
He predicts the arrival of a third movement. Its driving force is live commerce, centered on TikTok Shop. In China, live commerce hosts generating “1 billion yen in sales per day” have emerged, shifting the focus of purchasing from “what to buy” to “who to buy from.” In today's accelerated information flow, linear evaluation axes—like “it sells because it's music” or “it suddenly sells because it went viral on TikTok”—are becoming less effective. Instead, the core value lies in “stories” that resonate long-term and the powerful IP (live streamers/YouTubers/artists/creators/live commerce, etc.) that embodies them. Regardless of whether it's virtual or real, a model is needed that consistently presents relatable narratives and grows alongside fans through multifaceted branding encompassing works, goods, and products. IP can be an individual or a team; its strength is the core of business expansion.
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